Population change and the demographic transition model
Demographic transition affects a country's socioeconomic structure, resource allocation, and overall economic development. Policymakers use demographic transition models to predict future demographic trends and to plan accordingly for changes in healthcare, education, employment, and pensions systems.
Summary of the Demographic Transition
During demographic transition:
Summary of the Demographic Transition
During demographic transition:
- Natural Increase: Initially high due to high birth rates and falling death rates, but it decreases as the birth rate declines.
- Fertility Rate: High fertility rates in the early stages contribute to a young population and high dependency ratio. As the transition progresses, fertility rates fall, leading to an ageing population and eventually changing the dependency ratio.
- Life Expectancy: As health care, nutrition, and overall living conditions improve, life expectancy increases, which in the long term contributes to an ageing population.
- Population Structure: The population pyramid becomes less pyramid-shaped and more columnar as birth rates decline. Eventually, with low birth rates, the base of the pyramid starts shrinking, indicating a higher proportion of older individuals.
- Dependency Ratios: Initially, there's a high youth dependency ratio. Over time, as the fertility rate falls, the youth dependency ratio decreases but is countered by an increasing old-age dependency ratio.
Examples of countries in different stages of demographic transition:
- Pre-Transition (High Stationary):
- Afghanistan: Despite recent improvements, Afghanistan is an example of a country still in the early stages of demographic transition due to conflict and political instability, which keep both birth rates and death rates relatively high.
- Early Transition (Early Expanding):
- Niger: With one of the highest birth rates in the world and a decreasing death rate, Niger represents a country in the early transition stage. The population is growing rapidly as health care improves but fertility remains high.
- Late Transition (Late Expanding):
- India: India has been through a significant demographic transition, with declining fertility rates but still a growing population. Death rates have decreased faster than birth rates, but the gap is narrowing as fertility rates continue to fall.
- Post-Transition (Low Stationary):
- United States: The U.S. has a relatively low and stable birth rate and death rate, with minor natural population growth. It relies on immigration for much of its population growth.
- Australia: Similar to the U.S., Australia has a stable population growth with low birth and death rates, and immigration contributes significantly to its population dynamics.
- Advanced Stage (Declining):
- Japan: Japan is experiencing natural population decline as it has a very low fertility rate and a high life expectancy, leading to an aging population and a shrinking workforce.
- Italy: Italy also faces a declining population with low birth rates, an aging population, and a high life expectancy
Critically evaluate the factors that can influence a countries demographic transition
Demographic transition is the term used to describe how a country's population changes over time, especially as it moves from a mainly agricultural society to a more industrialised one. This change is influenced by several key factors.
Economic growth is one of the most important factors. When a country's economy grows and people become wealthier, their living standards usually get better. This can lead to improvements in health care, which can cause a drop in the number of deaths, particularly in young children. However, it's not just about having more money; this wealth needs to be shared fairly among people so that everyone can get good health care and education. This can help to reduce the number of deaths and births.
Education, and especially education for girls, is crucial. Women who have had an education tend to get married later and have fewer children. They're more likely to use health services and birth control, which can lead to having fewer children. Education also helps people get better jobs and make more money, which often leads to a desire for smaller families.
Advances in health care are another big factor. Things like vaccines, clean water, and medicines have made it so fewer people die from diseases. Birth control has also become more available, letting people choose how many children they want to have.
The culture and religion of a country can also influence how many children people have. In some places, having lots of children is seen as a good thing, or religious beliefs might limit the use of birth control. Both can mean that the number of births doesn't go down as quickly.
Governments can also play a role. Some make policies that encourage people to have more children, while others might encourage having fewer. For example, China used to have a policy that limited most families to only one child.
When people move from the countryside to cities, they often end up having fewer children. This is because in cities, children are more often seen as costing money rather than helping to earn it, as might be the case in rural areas. City life also usually means better access to schools and hospitals, leading to fewer births and deaths.
Lastly, people moving into or out of a country can really change its population. Countries with lots of people moving in might see their populations grow, even if they have low birth rates. On the other hand, countries with lots of people leaving might see their populations get smaller or older.
In summary, the way a country's population changes can be quite complicated. It's influenced by how much money people have, whether they can get a good education and health care, what they believe, and what the government does. It's also affected by people moving from place to place. Each country has its own path, depending on how these factors come together.
Economic growth is one of the most important factors. When a country's economy grows and people become wealthier, their living standards usually get better. This can lead to improvements in health care, which can cause a drop in the number of deaths, particularly in young children. However, it's not just about having more money; this wealth needs to be shared fairly among people so that everyone can get good health care and education. This can help to reduce the number of deaths and births.
Education, and especially education for girls, is crucial. Women who have had an education tend to get married later and have fewer children. They're more likely to use health services and birth control, which can lead to having fewer children. Education also helps people get better jobs and make more money, which often leads to a desire for smaller families.
Advances in health care are another big factor. Things like vaccines, clean water, and medicines have made it so fewer people die from diseases. Birth control has also become more available, letting people choose how many children they want to have.
The culture and religion of a country can also influence how many children people have. In some places, having lots of children is seen as a good thing, or religious beliefs might limit the use of birth control. Both can mean that the number of births doesn't go down as quickly.
Governments can also play a role. Some make policies that encourage people to have more children, while others might encourage having fewer. For example, China used to have a policy that limited most families to only one child.
When people move from the countryside to cities, they often end up having fewer children. This is because in cities, children are more often seen as costing money rather than helping to earn it, as might be the case in rural areas. City life also usually means better access to schools and hospitals, leading to fewer births and deaths.
Lastly, people moving into or out of a country can really change its population. Countries with lots of people moving in might see their populations grow, even if they have low birth rates. On the other hand, countries with lots of people leaving might see their populations get smaller or older.
In summary, the way a country's population changes can be quite complicated. It's influenced by how much money people have, whether they can get a good education and health care, what they believe, and what the government does. It's also affected by people moving from place to place. Each country has its own path, depending on how these factors come together.
Demographic Transition
Demographic transition refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates in a population over time. This transition is often accompanied by changes in social and economic factors, such as improvements in healthcare and education, and a shift from agriculture to industry.
Natural Increase
Natural increase refers to the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths occurring in a population during a given time period. It is usually expressed as a rate per 1,000 individuals per year. Natural increase does not take into account population changes due to migration; it is purely a measure of the population changes due to births and deaths.
Fertility Rate
Fertility rate, often specified as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), is the average number of children a woman would have assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years old) and bears children in accordance with prevailing age-specific fertility rates. It is an important indicator of population growth and replacement levels.
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is the average number of years a person is expected to live based on current mortality rates. It is often given at birth but can be calculated for any age. Life expectancy can reflect the overall health of a population and is influenced by factors such as healthcare quality, lifestyle, diet, and the prevalence of diseases.
Population Structure
Population structure refers to the composition of a population, often visualized through a population pyramid. This includes the distribution of various elements such as age groups, sex, and other characteristics such as marital status or employment. The population structure can provide insights into the social and economic conditions of a society.
Dependency Ratio
The dependency ratio is a measure showing the ratio of dependents (people younger than 15 or older than 64) to the working-age population (ages 15-64). A higher dependency ratio indicates that the working-age population and the overall economy face a greater burden in supporting the non-working age population. It is often broken down into the child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio.
Replacement Levels
Replacement levels refer to the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain the current population level, without taking immigration into account. The replacement fertility rate is typically around 2.1 children per woman in most industrialized countries. This number is slightly above 2.0 to account for the mortality of children before reaching reproductive age and the fact that not all individuals will have children.
Demographic transition refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates in a population over time. This transition is often accompanied by changes in social and economic factors, such as improvements in healthcare and education, and a shift from agriculture to industry.
Natural Increase
Natural increase refers to the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths occurring in a population during a given time period. It is usually expressed as a rate per 1,000 individuals per year. Natural increase does not take into account population changes due to migration; it is purely a measure of the population changes due to births and deaths.
Fertility Rate
Fertility rate, often specified as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), is the average number of children a woman would have assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years old) and bears children in accordance with prevailing age-specific fertility rates. It is an important indicator of population growth and replacement levels.
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is the average number of years a person is expected to live based on current mortality rates. It is often given at birth but can be calculated for any age. Life expectancy can reflect the overall health of a population and is influenced by factors such as healthcare quality, lifestyle, diet, and the prevalence of diseases.
Population Structure
Population structure refers to the composition of a population, often visualized through a population pyramid. This includes the distribution of various elements such as age groups, sex, and other characteristics such as marital status or employment. The population structure can provide insights into the social and economic conditions of a society.
Dependency Ratio
The dependency ratio is a measure showing the ratio of dependents (people younger than 15 or older than 64) to the working-age population (ages 15-64). A higher dependency ratio indicates that the working-age population and the overall economy face a greater burden in supporting the non-working age population. It is often broken down into the child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio.
Replacement Levels
Replacement levels refer to the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain the current population level, without taking immigration into account. The replacement fertility rate is typically around 2.1 children per woman in most industrialized countries. This number is slightly above 2.0 to account for the mortality of children before reaching reproductive age and the fact that not all individuals will have children.
Source: Max Roser, Our World in Data