China's Going Grey
The one-child policy is over, but China will live with the consequences for many years to come.
Many geographers are now speculating what the social and economic consequences might be for this major transition in the demographic structure of the world's most populous nation.
China's recent economic boom largely depended upon an abundant supply of young cheap labour. Today, a dwindling workforce is being matched by an increase in elderly people. Government population policy is to blame for this demographic shift that is significantly curtailing labour supply in China.
Many geographers are now speculating what the social and economic consequences might be for this major transition in the demographic structure of the world's most populous nation.
China's recent economic boom largely depended upon an abundant supply of young cheap labour. Today, a dwindling workforce is being matched by an increase in elderly people. Government population policy is to blame for this demographic shift that is significantly curtailing labour supply in China.
Why has China changed its population policy?
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The main reason for the change is that China now has an ageing population. Growing numbers of old people and not enough young people, mean that China might not be able to develop its economy.
In response, China has changed its population policy so that all married couples may now have families of two children. It no longer matters if you live in a city or the countryside. The new rules state that couples in China can now request to have two children, but families will still require government-issued birth permits, or face the sanction of a forced abortion.(BBC News, 2016). |
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China's Ageing Population Structure
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Source: Wikipedia
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China may have an average age that is about 10 years younger than Japan, but it's catching up. If a youthful population can bring economic growth, then China might not be able to compete with rival economies, such as India.
In 2015 alone, China's labour force shrank by 4.87 million. Data from the World Bank suggests that China's workforce will contract by more than 10 percent over the next 25 years - that's equivalent to 90 million people not turning up for work. Such a decline in the economically active population means a less advantageous dependency ratio for China. This at a time when average life expectancy in China has increased.
In 2015 alone, China's labour force shrank by 4.87 million. Data from the World Bank suggests that China's workforce will contract by more than 10 percent over the next 25 years - that's equivalent to 90 million people not turning up for work. Such a decline in the economically active population means a less advantageous dependency ratio for China. This at a time when average life expectancy in China has increased.
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Between 1990 and 2015, life expectancy in China increased from 69.3 years to 75.7 years. This is good news but increased longevity means that the number of elderly people that will need to be looked after is expected to double to around 400 million by 2035.
In a country where the government does not provide for its citizens with a state pension, a decline in young people of working age is already having severe consequences for China. Geriatric healthcare is expensive and this is putting pressure on both family and meagre social security budgets. According to Chinese tradition, adult children are responsible for looking after their elderly parents. However, many old people are now finding it hard to live without the security of multiple adult children. This is especially the case when an only child has a low paid job and is already struggling financially. |
The town of Rudong in Jiangsu Province, was once a model for population control. Today, Rudong is among the greyest towns in China.
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Population Imbalance
China is thought to have 33 million more men than women. Many attribute this imbalance to the one-child policy, although India also has a similar gender imbalance despite having a more liberal population policy. In China, many men known as bare branches, are left with the difficult task of finding a wife. With so many young men being deprived of the stability of family life, some sociologist are predicting an increase in social problems. Despite having to manage so many single men, the government has yet to show support for same sex marriage.
Will the Changes Work?
The number of couples who are likely to take advantage of the new freedom to have a second child is uncertain. Many couples, especially urban dwellers, are thought unlikely to be able to afford a second child. This is inline with a demographic trend towards having fewer children that has already established itself in high-income Asian economies such as Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore.
Geographers and demographers argue that China's one-child policy lasted too long. It will take 20 years before the new two-child policy sends any additional young people into China's workforce.
China's gamble now is that it can push ahead towards a high-end manufacturing economy that relies less on cheap labour and more on having a highly skilled workforce. Such a significant economic leap will also require an expansion of China's quaternary sector to supply businesses with creative ideas and new technologies. However, creativity is not a strength that is normally associated with the Chinese education system.
Geographers and demographers argue that China's one-child policy lasted too long. It will take 20 years before the new two-child policy sends any additional young people into China's workforce.
China's gamble now is that it can push ahead towards a high-end manufacturing economy that relies less on cheap labour and more on having a highly skilled workforce. Such a significant economic leap will also require an expansion of China's quaternary sector to supply businesses with creative ideas and new technologies. However, creativity is not a strength that is normally associated with the Chinese education system.
